Opta rates Nigeria AFCON 2025 title chances
Nigeria’s Super Eagles have been rated the fifth most likely team to win the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, with a 7.3% probability of lifting the trophy.
The projections by British sports analytics firm Opta, also gives Nigeria a 14.77% chance of reaching the final.
The projections were generated using Opta’s supercomputer model, which blends betting market odds with Opta Power Rankings derived from historical results and recent performances.
Morocco lead, Nigeria trail heavyweights
Hosts Morocco top the rankings with a 19.1% chance of winning the tournament. They are followed by Egypt (12.4%), Senegal (12.3%) and Algeria (12%).
Nigeria sit fifth, ahead of Tunisia in sixth place (6.8%), while defending champions Côte d’Ivoire are ranked seventh on 6.7%.
Strong path projected from Group C
Opta’s breakdown suggests Nigeria are well-positioned to progress deep into the competition.
The Super Eagles have a 42.09% chance of topping Group C, which also features Tunisia, Uganda and Tanzania.
Their probability of reaching the round of 16 stands at 88.61%, with a 50.45% chance of making the quarter-finals and a 27.61% likelihood of reaching the semi-finals.
Firepower drives confidence
Nigeria’s attacking depth underpins much of Opta’s confidence. With Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, Samuel Chukwueze and Paul Onuachu available, the Super Eagles boast one of Africa’s most potent forward lines.
Recent form has also been encouraging, with Chukwueze regaining momentum and Akor Adams and Chidera Ejuke impressing at club level.
Concerns remain despite depth
Despite the optimism, Nigeria face challenges, including the injury to Ola Aina and the retirement of captain William Troost-Ekong. Even so, with options like Victor Boniface and Tolu Arokodare in reserve, the Super Eagles remain a team no AFCON contender can afford to overlook.
