Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has said his mathematical calculations show that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will lose the 2027 general election.
Speaking during an appearance on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, El-Rufai, now a prominent figure in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, stated that Tinubu has no clear path to victory.
“Tinubu will be third in the 2027 election. I have done my maths and I can tell you Tinubu has no pathway to win. The worst-case scenario is that there will not be any winner in the first ballot,” El-Rufai said.
The former governor urged Nigerians to judge the government based on their personal well-being.
“Ask yourself, is your life better now under President Tinubu?” he asked.
El-Rufai criticized the current administration, claiming it has shown no genuine intentions and should already be open to public scrutiny.
Addressing speculation about his return to federal office, El-Rufai dismissed the idea of serving as a minister, noting that he had already held such a position early in his career.
He did, however, acknowledge that he had been considered for the role of Energy Minister, for which he claimed to have had a detailed plan to reform the sector.
Once a loyal member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and an active campaigner for Tinubu in 2023, El-Rufai has now aligned himself with opposition figures including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s Peter Obi.
On the question of party loyalty, he emphasized that election outcomes are ultimately decided by the people, not political leaders.
“I was in APC yet I did not deliver my state. Bola Tinubu did not win his state,” he stated.
El-Rufai also criticized the government’s handling of insecurity, arguing that officials often claim to have eliminated terrorists while the same elements remain active in the streets.
Commenting on pledges by some of his allies, including Peter Obi and former Rivers State Governor Chibuike Amaechi, to serve only a single term if elected, El-Rufai was dismissive.
“I want them to stop making this kind of commitment. Nobody believes them. Things change once they get in. Such a promise is even unfair,” he said.
